Lazio vs Monza Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadio Olimpico
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.60
Draw
4.14
Away Win
5.92
Match Prediction
Data favours
Lazio
Lazio rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Lazio an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Lazio slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lazio stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Lazio have secured two victories from their last five outings at home, while Monza's away record over the same span shows just a single win alongside one draw and three defeats. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five home matches, though they have managed to keep a clean sheet in only one of that same sequence. Lazio rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Lazio won the most recent meeting 5-1 on 9 February 2025, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Monza's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 24-day comparison window, Lazio's implied win probability has risen by 4.4 percentage points, while Monza's implied win probability has fallen by 2.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Lazio.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Lazio
No current absences reported
Monza
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Lazio
Lazio's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Lazio win as more likely than it did 24 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lazio win
Latest market chance 60.3%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
55.9% → 60.3%
+4.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
25.5% → 23.6%
−1.9 pts
Monza win
Latest market chance 16.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
18.6% → 16.1%
−2.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lazio
Draw
Monza
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 24 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LazioMonza
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
16th
5
Games Played
5
2.60
Points/Game
0.80
1.60
Goals/Game
1.60
0.60
Conceded/Game
2.40
12.8
Shots/Game
14.4
3.8
Shots on Target
6.0
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Lazio at home (2 matches) vs Monza away (3 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.33
1.50
Goals/Game
1.33
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.67
50%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lazio
Home form
D
L
W
W
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Monza
Away form
W
L
L
D
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lazio Wins
3
Draws
2
Monza Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.0
Lazio5 – 1Monza
Monza0 – 1Lazio
Monza2 – 2Lazio
Lazio1 – 1Monza
Monza0 – 2Lazio
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Laziovs
Monza
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.30
Goals conceded / game
2.40
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 16 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 45.6%→Latest 50.4%+4.8 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 46.9%→Latest 49.2%+2.3 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Lazio's 10 matches and 5 of Monza's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?