Arouca vs Estrela Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 20:30 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.18
Draw
3.53
Away Win
3.24
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Arouca edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Arouca stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Arouca stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Arouca stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Estrela have remained unbeaten in their last five away fixtures with just a solitary victory to their name, while Arouca have secured three wins from their corresponding home sample. Arouca have found the net in all of their last five home matches but have only kept one clean sheet during that same period. Arouca rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Arouca won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 19 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Estrela's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.8 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Arouca
No current absences reported
Estrela
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Arouca win
Latest market chance 43.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
43.2% → 43.3%
+0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.7% → 27.5%
−0.2 pts
Estrela win
Latest market chance 29.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.1% → 29.2%
+0.1 pts
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AroucaEstrela
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
8th
7
Games Played
7
1.57
Points/Game
1.43
1.43
Goals/Game
2.00
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
10.9
Shots/Game
13.1
3.9
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Arouca at home (3 matches) vs Estrela away (4 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.50
2.33
Goals/Game
2.75
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.50
67%
Win Rate
25%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Arouca
Home form
D
W
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Estrela
Away form
D
D
W
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Arouca Wins
2
Draws
1
Estrela Wins
2
Avg Goals
1.8
Arouca1 – 0Estrela
Estrela3 – 1Arouca
Arouca1 – 0Estrela
Estrela2 – 1Arouca
Arouca0 – 0Estrela
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Aroucavs
Estrela
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
1.90
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.90
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 14 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 49.9%→Latest 50.0%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.4%→Latest 54.4%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
2 of Arouca's 10 matches and 2 of Estrela's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?