Coventry vs Newcastle Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Coventry Building Society Arena
Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
3.31
Draw
3.63
Away Win
2.17
Match Prediction
Data favours
Newcastle
Newcastle rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; Coventry edge defence, giving Newcastle an edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Newcastle stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Newcastle stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Coventry slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Newcastle stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Newcastle have recorded just one victory and a single draw from their last five away fixtures, while Coventry mirror that exact tally of one win and one draw in their corresponding home outings over the same period. At home, Coventry have found the net in just one of their last five matches and have kept a clean sheet twice during that identical sample. Newcastle rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Coventry hold a slight advantage in defence. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2010. Over the 24-day comparison window, Coventry's implied win probability has risen by 0.9 percentage points, while Newcastle's implied win probability has fallen by 1.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Newcastle.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Coventry
No current absences reported
Newcastle
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Newcastle
Newcastle's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Newcastle win as less likely than it did 24 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Coventry win
Latest market chance 28.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
27.9% → 28.8%
+0.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.5% → 26.6%
+0.1 pts
Newcastle win
Latest market chance 44.6%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
45.6% → 44.6%
−1.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Coventry
Draw
Newcastle
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 24 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CoventryNewcastle
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
9th
5
Games Played
5
0.60
Points/Game
1.60
0.20
Goals/Game
1.80
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.80
10.2
Shots/Game
10.2
3.2
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away ContextEarly sample
Coventry at home (2 matches) vs Newcastle away (2 matches)
0.00
Points/Game
1.50
0.00
Goals/Game
1.50
3.00
Conceded/Game
2.00
0%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Coventry
Home form
W
L
D
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
0.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Newcastle
Away form
L
D
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Coventry Wins
0
Draws
0
Newcastle Wins
5
Avg Goals
3.0
Newcastle4 – 1Coventry
Coventry0 – 2Newcastle
Newcastle3 – 1Coventry
Coventry0 – 2Newcastle
Newcastle2 – 0Coventry
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Coventryvs
Newcastle
Recent Scoring Profile
0.40
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.70
Goals conceded / game
1.50
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
1/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
7/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 16 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.9%→Latest 57.2%+1.3 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.9%→Latest 60.1%+1.2 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Coventry's 10 matches and 5 of Newcastle's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?