Tamworth vs Barrow Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
The Lamb Ground
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
2.64
Draw
3.62
Away Win
2.43
Match Prediction
Statistical Comparison
Barrow stronger
Barrow rate stronger across every available category. They lead recent form and head-to-head. The overall statistical comparison rates Barrow stronger.
Leads 2 of 2 major categories
How They Compare
Recent Form
Barrow stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Barrow stronger
HomeAway
Limited comparison — attack and defence data unavailable for this competition.
Match Analysis
Tamworth have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while Barrow have managed just a solitary win in their corresponding away fixtures over the same span. Tamworth have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have kept a clean sheet only once during that identical period. Barrow rate stronger on form and head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2013. Over the 6-day comparison window, Tamworth's implied win probability has risen by 0.8 percentage points, while Barrow's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points. The statistical comparison rates Barrow stronger overall.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Tamworth
Tamworth's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Tamworth win as more likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Barrow remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Tamworth win
Latest market chance 35.5%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
34.7% → 35.5%
+0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.7% → 25.7%
±0.0 pts
Barrow win
Latest market chance 38.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
39.6% → 38.8%
−0.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Tamworth
Draw
Barrow
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
TamworthBarrow
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
9th
12
Games Played
12
1.17
Points/Game
1.50
1.67
Goals/Game
1.67
2.33
Conceded/Game
1.25
11.3
Shots/Game
8.9
5.4
Shots on Target
4.9
Home vs Away Context
Tamworth at home (5 matches) vs Barrow away (6 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.00
2.00
Goals/Game
1.50
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.67
60%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Tamworth
Home form
L
W
D
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Barrow
Away form
D
D
D
L
W
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Tamworth Wins
1
Draws
1
Barrow Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.0
Barrow2 – 0Tamworth
Tamworth1 – 3Barrow
Tamworth2 – 3Barrow
Barrow1 – 1Tamworth
Barrow0 – 2Tamworth
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Tamworthvs
Barrow
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.90
2.30
Goals conceded / game
1.10
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
0/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 12 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.1%→Latest 57.6%−0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 61.1%→Latest 60.9%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?