Almeria vs Leganes Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 15:15 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.63
Draw
4.29
Away Win
4.76
Match Prediction
Data favours
Almeria
Almeria rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Almeria an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Almeria stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Almeria stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Almeria stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Almeria stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Leganes arrive with a frustrating away record of just one win and one draw from their last five outings, while Almeria boast an impressive unbeaten run at home during the same period. The hosts have found the net in every single one of their last five matches yet have managed to keep a clean sheet only twice in that span. Almeria rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Almeria won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 5 April 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Leganes's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.6 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Almeria's implied win probability has risen by 1.0 percentage points, while Leganes's implied win probability has fallen by 0.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Almeria.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Almeria
Almeria's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Almeria win as more likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Almeria win
Latest market chance 57.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
56.3% → 57.3%
+1.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.5% → 22.8%
−0.7 pts
Leganes win
Latest market chance 19.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
20.3% → 19.8%
−0.5 pts
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AlmeriaLeganes
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
13th
8
Games Played
8
2.25
Points/Game
1.38
1.62
Goals/Game
0.75
0.62
Conceded/Game
1.38
13.5
Shots/Game
11.1
4.2
Shots on Target
3.8
Home vs Away Context
Almeria at home (5 matches) vs Leganes away (6 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
0.83
2.40
Goals/Game
0.33
0.80
Conceded/Game
1.83
100%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Almeria
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Leganes
Away form
W
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
0.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Almeria Wins
3
Draws
2
Leganes Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.6
Almeria2 – 1Leganes
Leganes0 – 3Almeria
Leganes2 – 2Almeria
Almeria1 – 0Leganes
Almeria1 – 1Leganes
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Almeriavs
Leganes
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
0.60
0.80
Goals conceded / game
1.70
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
2/10
2/10
Failed to Score
6/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 14 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.6%→Latest 58.3%+1.7 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.6%→Latest 57.4%+1.8 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
1 of Almeria's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?