St. Gilloise vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Stade Joseph Marien
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
1.25
Draw
6.18
Away Win
9.77
Match Prediction
Data favours
St. Gilloise
St. Gilloise rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving St. Gilloise a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
St. Gilloise stronger
HomeAway
Attack
St. Gilloise stronger
HomeAway
Defence
St. Gilloise stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
St. Gilloise stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
St. Gilloise have enjoyed a robust run at home with four victories from their last five outings, while Oud-Heverlee Leuven have struggled away from the ground, managing only one draw in that same span. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five home games and kept four clean sheets in that identical period. St. Gilloise rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 24 January 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives St. Gilloise a strong edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Oud-Heverlee Leuven losing run
1
Oud-Heverlee Leuven points from last 5 matches
Team Availability
St. Gilloise
No current absences reported
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
No current absences reported
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Market View
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How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
St. Gilloise win
Latest market chance 74.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
74.5% → 74.5%
±0.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 16.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
16.0% → 16.0%
±0.0 pts
Oud-Heverlee Leuven win
Latest market chance 9.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
9.5% → 9.5%
±0.0 pts
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
St. Gilloise
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
15th
7
Games Played
7
2.71
Points/Game
0.57
3.00
Goals/Game
0.71
0.43
Conceded/Game
1.86
17.3
Shots/Game
13.1
8.0
Shots on Target
2.6
Home vs Away Context
St. Gilloise at home (3 matches) vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven away (3 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
0.00
2.67
Goals/Game
0.33
0.00
Conceded/Game
2.33
67%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
St. Gilloise
Home form
W
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
3.2
Goals scored
per match
0.2
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Away form
L
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
2 of these matches from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
St. Gilloise Wins
3
Draws
2
Oud-Heverlee Leuven Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.0
2026-01-242025-2026
Oud-Heverlee Leuven0 – 0St. Gilloise
2025-08-032025-2026
St. Gilloise5 – 0Oud-Heverlee Leuven
2025-01-192024-2025
St. Gilloise1 – 0Oud-Heverlee Leuven
2024-11-242024-2025
Oud-Heverlee Leuven1 – 1St. Gilloise
2024-03-022023-2024
Oud-Heverlee Leuven0 – 2St. Gilloise
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
St. Gilloise
vs
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Recent Scoring Profile
2.60
Goals scored / game
0.90
0.90
Goals conceded / game
1.60
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
3/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
82.6%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
65.0%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
44.3%
BTTSBoth teams score
50.0%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 14 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 64.7%→Latest 64.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.0%→Latest 50.0%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
3 of St. Gilloise's 10 matches and 3 of Oud-Heverlee Leuven's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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