Mechelen vs St Truiden Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Achter de Kazerne
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 18:15 UK
Latest Odds
Home Win
3.36
Draw
3.42
Away Win
2.17
Match Prediction
Data favours
St Truiden
St Truiden rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving St Truiden an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
St Truiden stronger
HomeAway
Attack
St Truiden stronger
HomeAway
Defence
St Truiden slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
St Truiden stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
St Truiden have recorded just one win and a single draw from their last five away fixtures, while Mechelen sit on a similar tally of one victory and two draws in their most recent five home outings. Mechelen have scored in three of their last five home matches but have only managed to keep a clean sheet once during that same span. St Truiden rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. St Truiden won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 24 May 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Mechelen's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison favours St Truiden.
Pre-Match Context
Team Availability
Mechelen
No current absences reported
St Truiden
No current absences reported
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 6 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Mechelen win
Latest market chance 29.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
29.0% → 29.2%
+0.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.3% → 26.2%
−0.1 pts
St Truiden win
Latest market chance 44.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
44.8% → 44.6%
−0.2 pts
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MechelenSt Truiden
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
11th
7
Games Played
7
0.43
Points/Game
1.14
0.71
Goals/Game
1.71
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.71
11.9
Shots/Game
17.3
3.1
Shots on Target
4.3
Home vs Away Context
Mechelen at home (3 matches) vs St Truiden away (3 matches)
0.33
Points/Game
1.33
1.00
Goals/Game
2.33
2.67
Conceded/Game
2.00
0%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Mechelen
Home form
W
D
D
L
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
St Truiden
Away form
L
L
D
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Mechelen Wins
0
Draws
1
St Truiden Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.0
St Truiden3 – 0Mechelen
Mechelen1 – 4St Truiden
St Truiden1 – 0Mechelen
Mechelen1 – 3St Truiden
Mechelen1 – 1St Truiden
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Mechelenvs
St Truiden
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.70
2.10
Goals conceded / game
1.60
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
6/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 12 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.0%→Latest 56.6%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.7%→Latest 59.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
3 of Mechelen's 10 matches and 3 of St Truiden's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?